Alumni Excellence Award Recipient: Christopher Koper ’88; M.A. ’92; Ph.D. ’95

In law enforcement, the Koper Curve Principle calls on police to regularly patrol crime micro-hot spots (streets or blocks known for criminal activity) for 11 to 15 minutes at a time. 

Research conducted by criminologist Christopher Koper ’88 (M.A. ’92, PhD ’95) on hot spot patrols in Minneapolis showed that the likelihood of a new crime or disorder within 30 minutes of such patrols was 4%. That was down from 16% and demonstrated that officers patrolling longer than 15 minutes didn’t bring additional benefits. 

“That balance turned out to be critical,” says Koper, who published his work in 1995. “It’s long enough to deter crime, but short enough to be efficient.” For more than three decades, Koper has used research and evaluation to help reshape how police departments around the world think about crime and deterrence. 

It didn’t used to be that way. When Koper entered the field in the late 1980s, policing was still largely driven by experience, tradition and intuition. Research existed, but rigorous evaluations were rare. Data was limited, and many departments were skeptical of outside researchers. 

“There was definitely resistance,” says Koper, a professor of criminology, law and society at George Mason University, and the principal fellow of the institution’s Center for Evidence-Based Crime Policy. “You’d hear, ‘We know what we’re doing. We don’t need evidence.’ And honestly, you still hear that sometimes.” 

But necessity changed "business as usual". As crime surged through the 1970s and 1980s, and then finally began to decline in the 1990s, police departments became more open to analysis, outside expertise and collaboration. 

Koper doesn’t come from a law enforcement background. Instead, he developed an interest in social science research methods as an undergraduate at Maryland. It was as a graduate student that he’d started developing the Koper Curve. The principle has been adopted by police around the globe and become a cornerstone of hot-spot policing, which is standard practice in many large departments. 

Koper’s influence extends beyond policing. Throughout the 1990s and early 2000s, he conducted widely cited research on firearms policy, including studies commissioned by the U.S. Department of Justice and Congress on the federal assault weapons ban. 

His research has helped lawmakers, judges and advocates understand the empirical realities behind what are typically emotionally charged debates. At George Mason, Koper is one of the nation’s chief proponents of evidence-based policing. His center hosts conferences, organizes congressional briefings, and disseminates free publications and tools to make research accessible to police, policymakers and the public. 

One of the center’s flagship tools developed by Koper and others is the Evidence-Based Policing Matrix, which summarizes nearly 300 field experiments assessing policing strategies. “We actually have something you can point to now,” Koper says. “That wasn’t true 30 years ago.” 

These days, Koper is preparing a second edition of “Evidence-Based Policing: Translating Research Into Practice” (Oxford University Press, 2017) a book he wrote with fellow George Mason criminologist and Maryland alumna, Cynthia Lum ’03 Ph.D. Koper also continues to work with police agencies and practitioner associations on topics spanning patrol, crime prevention, criminal investigations and the institutionalization of evidence-based practices. 

“You just want to feel like you did solid work,” he says of his career. “That it was useful. That it informed practice, helped people make better decisions and moved the field forward.”